Global Palm Oil Supply Faces Land and Policy Pressures Ahead of 2026

According to analyst Sathia Varqa of Fastmarkets, Indonesia is projected to add 1.5–2.0 million tonnes of CPO output in 2026, following strong gains in 2025. However, government-led land seizures targeting illegal plantations could put 2–5 million tonnes of future output at risk.

Malaysia, meanwhile, is expected to see output ease slightly to 19.6 million tonnes in 2026 after a strong 2025, constrained by aging trees, labor shortages, and limited replanting.

Analysts say global prices will increasingly depend on how governments manage land policy enforcement and production recovery.