Brazil’s Soybean Exports Seen Falling 3% in 2026, Ending Stocks Set to Surge

Agribusiness consultancy Safras & Mercado projected that soybean shipments from the world’s largest producer and exporter will fall 3% year-on-year to around 105 million metric tonnes, according to a report released on Monday.

Safras said the decline in exports is expected amid stronger domestic processing. Soybean crushing in 2026 is projected to reach 60 million tonnes, up from 58.5 million tonnes a year earlier.

Safras analyst Rafael Silveira said the outlook reflects expectations of another record harvest and expanding crushing capacity.

Supply Up, Demand Slightly Lower

According to Reuters, Safras forecast Brazil’s total soybean supply in 2026 to rise 5% year-on-year to 183.79 million tonnes, while demand is expected to edge down 1% to 168.42 million tonnes.

One notable shift is on the import side. Safras predicted Brazil would import no soybeans in 2026, compared with imports of around 969,000 tonnes in 2025.

With supply rising and demand easing slightly, Brazil’s ending stocks are expected to jump sharply. Safras projected ending stocks to surge 241% to 15.37 million tonnes, from 4.51 million tonnes in the previous year.

In terms of by-products, Safras forecast Brazil’s soymeal production to reach 47.4 million tonnes in 2026, up around 2%, while soymeal exports are expected to rise 6% to 24.7 million tonnes.

Silveira said comfortable soymeal inventories could weigh on the market and potentially trigger a significant decline in premiums.

Meanwhile, soy oil production is expected to increase 3% to 11.7 million tonnes. However, soy oil exports are projected to fall 19% to 1.1 million tonnes, reflecting stronger domestic demand that Safras expects to rise 3% due to higher biodiesel usage.

2025/26 Harvest Forecast Revised Higher

Safras also revised its soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season to around 179.28 million tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 178.76 million tonnes, reinforcing expectations that Brazil is heading toward its largest soybean crop on record.

With record output, higher crushing volumes, and rising ending stocks, Brazil’s soybean market dynamics in 2026 are expected to influence global trade flows—including competition in the vegetable oil market.